Exponential functions can be used to model the growth and decline of
populations of endangered species.
a. Give estimated numbers of bald eagles in the United States in 1800,
1960, and 1995. (Note that the given data are for pairs of eagles.
[150,000; 900; 9000]
b. Calculate the average annual rate of decline in the bald eagle population
from 1800 to 1960. Calculate the average annual rate of increase from 1960
to 1995. [3.15% annual decrease; 6.8% annual increase]
c. Write and graph equations modeling the population decline (1800-1960)
and population increase (1960-1995). [decline
P = 150,000(0.9685)t]
d. If the population decline had not been halted, when would the bald
eagle population have fallen below 10 birds (5 pairs)? Without intervention,
when would have the species become extinct? [about
300 years after 1800, or 2100]
e. If the current rate of increase continues, when will the population
exceed the 1800 population? [about 78 years after
1960, or 2038]
2. Like the bald eagle before it rebounded, the whooping crane is a gravely
endangered species.
b. Use exponential regression to find an exponential model y
= abx of the data. Round a and b
to the nearest thousandth. [y = 20.274(1.037x)]
c. Use your model to estimate the year in which the whooping crane population
reached 100 birds. [year 44, or 1984]
3. The California condor is another gravely endangered bird. Read the
life history of the California
condor.
a. Because of the success of captive breeding programs, the number of
condors alive in 1987 soon doubled. How many years did it take the number
of condors to double? [5 years]
b. Use the Rule of 70 to approximate the rate of increase in condor
numbers during the doubling period. Assume continuous exponential growth.
[14%]
c. Write and graph an equation that models continuous exponential growth
during the population doubling period that began in 1987. [A
= 27e 0.14t]

d. If your model is correct, how many condors will be alive in the year
2000? [167]
e. Is an exponential model a good one for modeling condor population
growth? Explain. [Answers will vary. Probably
not. Condors do not increase "continuously." Rather, condor females
lay single eggs once or less per year (see "Life History"). Between
hatchings, the population does not increase.]

In an effort to better understand the forces of the earth beneath us,
seismologists--earthquake scientists--have gathered huge amounts of data
on earthquakes.
Part B, Solving Exponential Equations
1. The Significant
Earthquake Database contains information on more than 5000 destructive
earthquakes that have occurred over the past 4000 years.
a. Search the database to find the Richter magnitudes of two quakes
that took place in November, 1985--one in Turkey and one in the Vanuatu
Islands. [Turkey, 4.1; Vanuatu Islands, 7.6]
b. The amplitude A of an earthquake shockwave is
half the height of the wave. If R is the Richter magnitude
of a quake and a is the amplitude of the normal background
shockwave, R = log A / a. Let
a = 1 unit.

Find the amplitudes of the Turkey and Vanuatu Islands earthquakes. Round
to the nearest hundred. [Turkey, 12,600; Vanuatu
Islands, 39,810,700]
c. Amplitude is a measure of the intensity of an earthquake. How many
times stronger than the Turkey quake was the Vanuatu quake?
[10 7.6 4.1 = 10 3.5 3162 times]
d. A quake approximately 200 times stronger than the Turkey quake took
place in March, 1985. What was the Richter magnitude of the quake? In what
group of islands did the quake take place? [6.4;
Leeward Islands]
Part D, Making Connections
2a. The formula log10E = 11.4 + 1.5R approximates the amount
of energy E in ergs, released in an earthquake of Richter magnitude R.
Solve the formula for E. [E = 10 11.4 + 1.5R]
b. The largest earthquake in U.S. history took place in Alaska on March 28, 1964.
Find the Richter magnitude of the quake. Approximate the amount of energy
released by the quake. [9.2; E = 1.5849
X 1025 ergs]
c. Look at the bottom of the page of the Largest
Earthquakes in the United States to find out which earthquake released
2.5119 X10 23 ergs of energy. Which earthquake was it, and what was its
magnitude?
d. The velocity v, in mi/h,
at which a tsunami (tidal wave) travels is related to the depth d
in ft of the water through which the wave travels by the formula
log14.9d v = 0.5. Find the velocity of the
tsunami unleashed by the 1964 Alaska earthquake as the wave traveled across
Pacific Ocean waters 3 miles in depth. 